Intelligence does not protect you from bias. A sharp mind is often better at defending a wrong belief. Knowing the common traps is the first defence.
- Confirmation bias. We notice and remember evidence that supports what we already think. Fix: deliberately look for the strongest case against your view.
- Anchoring. The first number we see colours later estimates, even when it is random. Fix: make your own estimate before looking at the asking price.
- Availability. We judge how common something is by how easily examples come to mind, which is why vivid news stories distort risk. Fix: look for actual statistics.
- Sunk cost. We keep going because we already invested, not because it is wise. Fix: ask "if I were starting today, would I choose this?"
- Survivorship bias. We study the winners and forget the many who failed doing the same things. Fix: ask who is missing from the sample.
- Base-rate neglect. We ignore how common something is overall when judging a single case. A positive result on a rare-condition test is still often a false alarm. Fix: start from the baseline.
- Framing. "90 percent survive" feels better than "10 percent die", though they are the same. Fix: restate the choice in the other frame.
- Overconfidence. We tend to think we are more accurate than we are. Fix: write predictions down with a confidence level and check them later.
A habit that beats them all
Slow down on important decisions, write your reasons, and ask someone you trust to poke holes in them.
Logic puzzles train the same muscle: you must follow the facts even when your gut says otherwise. Try one in the Puzzle Vault.